Tensions in the South China Sea continue to increase, triggered by various geopolitical and economic factors involving countries in the region. One major issue is the overlapping territorial claims between China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. China claims almost the entire South China Sea based on its “nine-dash line” map, which often contradicts the claims of neighboring countries. One prominent source of tension is China’s military deployment in the region. Activities to build artificial islands and strengthen military bases in strategic locations have triggered strong reactions from countries that feel threatened. For example, the Philippines and Vietnam, as parties who feel disadvantaged, are increasingly strengthening their defense cooperation with countries such as the United States and Japan. Not only that, the conflict over fishing rights is also getting hotter. Fishermen from different countries compete for the sea’s abundant resources, and clashes between fishing vessels are becoming more frequent. The Vietnamese government, for example, has strengthened its custom fleet to protect its fishermen from perceived “illegal fishing” by Chinese vessels. Economic aspects are also a key factor in this tension. The South China Sea is an important route for global trade, with around 30% of all world maritime transport passing through these waters. In addition, significant potential oil and gas reserves were discovered on the seabed, which further exacerbated competition between countries. From a diplomatic perspective, efforts to resolve conflicts through multilateral dialogue often reach a dead end. ASEAN, as a regional organization, is trying to mediate, but the lack of solid agreement among its members complicates the process. Several ASEAN member countries have different interests, making it difficult to reach consensus. In the midst of all this, the United States plays an important role. With the “Indo-Pacific” policy launched, the US is increasing its presence in the region by conducting military exercises with its allied countries. This is intended to show support for countries threatened by Chinese expansion, but it also adds to tensions. In the future, the situation in the South China Sea is likely to become increasingly complicated. Geopolitical competition between big powers such as the US and China and the conflicting national interests of smaller countries could make matters worse. Increased troop deployments and provocative statements from all sides will only add to the uncertainty and risk of future conflict.
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